Bayesian A/B Test Calculator

Calculate the probability that your variant is truly better than your control using Bayesian statistics. More intuitive than p-values and confidence intervals.

Control (A)

Variant (B)

Ready to run your own A/B tests?

Stellar makes it easy to set up, run, and analyze A/B tests with built-in Bayesian statistics.

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💳 No credit card required
⚡️ Lightest in the market at 5.4kb

Why Use Bayesian Statistics for A/B Testing?

More Intuitive Results

Bayesian statistics directly answers the question "What is the probability that B is better than A?" This is much more intuitive than interpreting p-values or confidence intervals.

No Need for Fixed Sample Sizes

Unlike frequentist methods, Bayesian analysis allows you to evaluate results at any time, without requiring predetermined sample sizes or stopping rules.

Better for Business Decisions

Bayesian methods provide probabilities that directly inform business decisions, helping you understand the risk associated with choosing one variant over another.

Handles Small Sample Sizes Better

Bayesian methods work well even with smaller sample sizes, giving you useful information earlier in your testing process.

Why choose Stellar for A/B testing?

Built-in Bayesian statistics for more intuitive results
Lightning-fast load time with our 5.4kb script
GDPR compliant. No cookies needed for testing.
Free forever, under 25k monthly tracked users.

Our A/B testing script won't slow down your site

Stellar's script is just 5.4KB - at least 10 times smaller than other A/B testing solutions. It loads instantly without affecting your site performance, SEO ranking, or Core Web Vitals.

Stellar (0ms)
VWO (100ms)
Optimizely (150ms)
ABlyft (180ms)
Convert (200ms)
Performance impact on LCP in milliseconds

At just 5.4KB and served on a CDN, Stellar's pure JS script is 25x smaller than competitors like VWO or AB Tasty. With minimal dependencies and a fixed size regardless of test count, it preserves your website's speed, Core Web Vitals, user experience, and SEO performance.

Frequently Asked Questions About Bayesian A/B Testing

What is Bayesian A/B testing?

Bayesian A/B testing is an approach to statistical analysis that uses Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence becomes available. In A/B testing, it directly calculates the probability that one variant is better than another, rather than relying on p-values and confidence intervals.

How is Bayesian testing different from traditional (frequentist) testing?

Traditional frequentist methods calculate the probability of observing your data given a hypothesis (p-value), while Bayesian methods calculate the probability that your hypothesis is true given the observed data. This makes Bayesian results more intuitive and directly applicable to business decisions.

What probability threshold should I use to declare a winner?

Common thresholds are 95% for high confidence or 90% for moderate confidence. However, the appropriate threshold depends on your specific business context and the cost of making a wrong decision. For low-risk changes, you might accept a lower probability like 80%.

Can I stop a Bayesian test early?

Yes, one advantage of Bayesian testing is that you can evaluate results at any time without penalty. Unlike frequentist methods, there's no need for predetermined sample sizes or stopping rules. You can check results continuously and make decisions when the probability reaches your desired threshold.

Pricing

Free

$0 USD/mo.

Up to 25k MTU

Built-in analytics

Visual web editor

Custom CSS & JS editor

AI editor assistant

Basic A/B testing

Limited variants & goals

Limited concurrent experiments

30 day free trial

Pro

$99 USD/mo.
billed annually
Everything in Free, plus:

50k MTU included

Then easily scale with +$2/mo for every additional 1k MTU

Unlimited variants

Unlimited concurrent experiments

Advanced targeting rules

Dynamic keyword insertion

Priority support

Enterprise

Custom
Everything in Pro, plus:

Custom MTU volume

Tailored pricing for high-volume needs

Custom solutions

Integrations support

✓ Pay Only For What You Use

Unlike competitors who charge in fixed large blocks, we dynamically bill in small increments of 1k MTU, ensuring you never overpay

✓ 4x More Cost-Effective

Compared to average competitors like VWO's $4,700/year for 50k MTU, our equivalent annual cost is just $1,118

✓ Fair MTU Counting

We only count users who actually see experiments. Multiple experiment views from the same user count as just 1 MTU

Frequently Asked Questions

Ready to improve your A/B testing with Bayesian statistics? Let's talk

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